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Major Shift and Nascent Trends in the American Diet

In the November 2003 issue, we started our coverage of the American trend toward healthier eating, as in low-fat and low-carbohydrate foods. We also examined how restaurants are reformulating their menus and food companies are reformulating their recipes in response to this trend. We are now prepared to say that what is sometimes called the low-carb craze is a tectonic shift in the American diet. Here's the latest evidence:

• Old Spaghetti Factory is testing new low-carb options for diners.
• Burger King is offering bunless Whoppers and other sandwiches in alad bowls and will soon offer a new salad line featuring chicken, shrimp and steak. You will also be able to order a side salad as a substitute for fries in value meals.
• Schlotzsky's is offering a new tortilla with 7 net grams of carbohydrates, or romaine lettuce as an alternative wrap for all its sandwiches.
• Donatos Pizzeria has announced it will roll out a low-carb crust at its 182 outlets.
• Einstein Bros. & Noah's New York Bagels have introduced a low-carb 9 grain bagel and a low-carb and low-fat menu.
• Papa Murphy's Take ‘N Bake has a new thin crust deLITE reduced-carbohydrate and reduced-calorie pizza at its 792 pizza shops.
• Holiday Inn is rolling out a Low-Carb Inspirations(sm) breakfast menu nationwide at all 1,000 Holiday Inns.
• Denny's plans to introduce special low-carb menu items in mid-April at all 1,645 domestic restaurants.
• Rubio's Fresh Mexican Grill has introduced low-carb Lettuce Tacos(sm) in 105 of its California locations. The tacos have only 7 net grams of carbohydrates.
• Figaro's, a 90-unit take-and-bake pizza franchise chain, is rolling out a line of 8-inch, low-carb, thin whole wheat crust pizzas with less than 12 net carbs each that can be eaten by hand like a regular pizza.
• Carvel is introducing a new carb-diet friendly ice cream. Each 4 fl oz serving will have only 5 net carbs.
• Wal-Mart is placing Blimpie shops in 100 of its stores to replace Wal-Mart's Radio Grill 50s-themed restaurant. The Blimbie shops will offer its recently introduced line of low-carb sandwiches. In response to the reported demand for low-carbohydrate products, Wal-Mart has installed six-foot displays of its low-carb products in all of its stores.
• 7-11 is now selling 50 Atkins low-carb products at its 5,800 U.S. locations.
• Unilever is launching 18 new low-carbohydrate products including low-carb versions of Skippy peanut butter, Ragu spaghetti sauce and Wishbone salad dressing.
• Frito-Lay has launched low-carb versions of Doritos and Tostitos tortilla chips.
• SaraLee has introduced lower carbohydrate versions of its sandwich breads.
• Breyers now offers a Carb Smart(sm) line of ice creams and ice cream bars.

In 2003, sales of frozen bagels dropped 22% and hard-rolled candy sales dropped 23%, reportedly because of the popularity of low-carb diets. According to Gallup research, 40% of Americans made an effort to cut carbs in 2003.

To evaluate the depth of the low-carb trend and its possible impact on bread sales, the National Bread Leadership Council late last year conducted a random survey of 1,000 people. In the findings, 40% of those polled said they had reduced their bread consumption and 21% said they followed the Atkins diet or another low-carbohydrate eating discipline. The National Bread Leadership Council is trying to counter the reduction in bread consumption with a PR campaign that includes negative information about the Atkins and South Beach diets. That doesn't sit well with the newly formed Carbohydrate Awareness Council that is holding a CarbAware Executive Summit in Washington, D.C. Dr. Gil Wilshire, MD, president of the group, says the organization must "counteract the baseless but well-funded smear campaigns being waged by those interested in the status quo."

So where is all this leading? You can look to California, where many major restaurant and diet trends have started in the past. This month, Pure Foods, which operates low-carb retail stores, will open the first Pure Foods Low Carb Café in Beverly Hills, California. It will feature 15 low-carb lunch and dinner items. Pure Foods plans to roll out the concept in additional California cities.

Another possible nascent food trendsetter based in California is Sharky's Woodfired Mexican Grill, an organic-leaning fast casual concept. Sharky's opened its first unit in 1992 in the Los Angeles suburb of Sherman Oaks and currently has 13 units in southern California.

Sharky's defines its brand with an ‘organic' menu promising hormone-free and preservative-free chicken, beef and fresh fish. Its certified organic rice, black beans and pinto beans are also free of any genetically modified organisms. Although the restaurant uses the Mexican moniker, the menu really represents a broader swath of Latino culture with ingredients and menu items common in Central and South America, as well as Cuba and Puerto Rico (another nascent trend White Hutchinson has identified). To accommodate vegetarians, restaurants offer tofu as a protein option. Sharky's has also introduced a whole-wheat tortilla with 3 grams of fat.

Sharky's units are 2,200 to 3,000 square feet in size, generally have seating for 60 indoors and 40 outdoors, and average $1.3 million in sales with an average check of $8 per person. Sharky's is not the only chain touting its hormone-free foods. The McDonald's-owned Chipotle chain is also promoting its hormone-free proteins.

What does all this mean for location-based leisure facilities? Either get on the bandwagon and help your guests manage their diets, or lose business. It all boils down to minimizing your guests' sacrifice (see Guest Sacrifice: A Sure Trip to Prison or a Path to Profitability?).

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