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Why are birthday parties declining?

Frank Price, the industry's birthday expert who runs Birthday University, reposted our article 'Births fell again in 2025,' along with his commentary:

What does this mean for ME ... YOU ASK? By Frank Price

Are your FEC birthday parties down?

Randy recently wrote this article for the agritourism industry - an industry that, if you haven't noticed, has been eating your lunch in the fourth quarter for quite a while. They must be doing something right. But the data he shared also explains something many operators are struggling to understand … why birthday party numbers are down.

The simple answer is demographics. There are far fewer kids today than there were not long ago - nearly 8 million fewer children than in the past generation, and the number continues to decline.

The young family population has taken a dramatic downturn and will keep shrinking. Fewer children are being born, and families are starting later in life. Fewer kids ultimately means less birthday party demand. One of the few things I remember from Economics 101 still applies today: when the population base shrinks, demand shrinks with it.

Yet many operators are still trying to run their party programs the same way they did twenty years ago - chasing higher volume and often lowering prices to get it. That strategy simply doesn't work in a declining demographic environment.

At the same time, the Millennial generation - now the dominant group raising young children - has a very different definition of value. Their idea of a great party experience for their kids almost always includes social entertainment for themselves as well. They want to participate, connect, and enjoy the experience - not just drop the kids off and watch from the sidelines. And right behind them is Gen Z, bringing their own changing views of family, relationships, and marriage. Many in this generation are choosing to delay having children - or not have them at all.

So, there are two realities operators can't ignore: First, there are simply fewer kids.

Second, guest expectations have changed. Holding on to the old ways of doing things is not a strategy - it's a slow path to irrelevance.

The opportunity today is not to chase more parties. The opportunity is to evolve your party programs - for both youth and adults - so each event delivers higher value, better experiences, and ultimately higher profits per party. That's exactly what we focus on at Birthday University.

The next Birthday University will be held in Atlanta, GA, on August 25-26, 2026. Learn more HERE.

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