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Infographic on entertainment spending on trips

In my previous blog, I discussed the long-term trend of declining household spending on trips for entertainment, food and beverage and sporting events. This infographic illustrates the changes to trip entertainment spending by each quintile of household incomes and shows how the share of all such spending is shifting to the highest income households, a trend called social stratification. Overall, average household entertainment on trips have declined by 30% since the beginning of the Third Millennium.

 

 

 

 

 

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Household Spending On Trips for Entertainment, Restaurants and Sporting Events

If you operate or plan to develop a tourist-based entertainment venue or restaurant, it is important to understand trends that impact both overall market potential and the optimal target of customers.

This graph shows changes to and the relative amount of average household spending during out-of-town trips for food, alcohol, entertainment and admission to sporting events.

When people are on trips, they spend over five times as much on food and drink as they do on both entertainment and attending sporting events combined. However, over the past decade there has been a decrease in average household spending in all categories. The declines have all been long-term trends not attributable to the Great Recession that started in December 2007 with the exception of spending on alcohol. The decline in alcohol spending, after a continued rise from 2001 to 2006, appears to have been caused by the recession. (We believe the earlier rise in alcohol spending is less attributable to people drinking more, but rather to them buying premium drinks.)

However, looking at averages never tells you the whole story. It’s like describing a roller coaster by its average height. The devil is in the details.

We dug deeper into spending data and found the following when we examined spending by households with different incomes:

With the exception of liquor expenditures, there is a direct correlation between household income and the declines in spending. The households with the lowest incomes cut back their spending during trips the most.

When we looked at each category of spending by each quintile income group over time, we found that with a few exceptions the declines were long-term trends that started before the recession. The two exceptions were entertainment spending on trips by the highest 20% of households by income, whose decline started with the recession, and alcohol spending by all quintiles, which also started with the recession. Average household spending for food, alcohol, entertainment and admission to sporting events on trips by the lowest 80% of income households decreased by 27% over the decade whereas it only decreased by 4% for the 20% highest income households.

The net effect all these changes is that the households in the highest quintile of incomes (2010 incomes $92,000+), have increased their aggregate share of all spending by all households for food, alcohol, entertainment and sporting event admissions on trips from 42% in 2000 to 49% in 2010. Those 20% of high-income households now spend almost as much as the entire other 80% of households.

We believe the implication of all this is that out-of-town venues need to make sure they offer upscale experiences in facilities with good ambiance and quality food and beverage offerings to capture the higher socioeconomic market that now represents the greatest slice of spending (and based on long-term trends, will probably grow in share in the future) from a overall decreasing size pie of household expenditures on trips.

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Out-of-home entertainment spending continues to decrease

Since the beginning of the Great Recession, average household inflation-adjusted out-of-home entertainment spending has decreased. Comparing household spending in 2007 with spending in 2010, community-based entertainment spending saw a decrease of 8% and entertainment spending on trips saw a 14% decrease. The decreases occurred across all household incomes.

The recessionary decreases are only part of a longer-term trend of decreasing household out-of-home entertainment spending that started in 2001 for entertainment on trips and 2003 for community-based entertainment. The steepest spending decline has been for entertainment spending on trips, which is down 30% in 2010 compared to 2000 whereas average household community-based entertainment spending is only down 4%.

The chart below shows the decreases based on an index of 100 equaling average household community-based entertainment spending in 2000. In 2010, community-based entertainment decreased to an index of 94 (-4%). Entertainment spending on trips decreased from an index of 78 (78% of what community-based spending was in that same year) to a 2010 index of 55 (-30%). Total average household spending on all out-of-home entertainment decreased over the 10 years by 15%.

Over the decade average household community-based entertainment spending is basically staying even with minor variations whereas there has been significant cutbacks with entertainment spending on trips.

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Review of New Dave & Buster’s Prototype in Orlando

Last week while I was attending the IAAPA convention, I had a chance to visit the new Dave & Buster’s on International Drive in Orlando, Florida with some colleagues. It’s on the property previously occupied by the Race Rock restaurant, which was demolished to make way for the construction of Dave & Buster’s. This 58th Dave & Buster’s is a radical departure from the look, layout and decor of earlier Dave & Buster’s that today look very dated with their dark wood and brass finishes. This one was bright and contemporary in design.

The facility is about 40,000 square feet on a second level with parking below it on the ground level. You enter up a massive set of stairs with 24 steps that seem to go on forever. The steps are solid concrete and a little on the steep side for such a long flight of stairs. Unfortunately I believe there will be some serious injuries based on the stair design for customers who descend them after a good dose of alcohol. This is the only 2nd floor entertainment facility of this size that I have ever visited that didn’t have escalators. There was an elevator, but it was completely hidden out of sight and was out of order when I visited.

 

The facility is basically divided into four areas – at the entrance, a large bar and lounge area (all tables and chairs), to the right is the restaurant, to the back is the massive gameroom with 170 games and at its far left back the redemption store. To the right of the gameroom are three private rooms that can be combined for groups of up to 200.

 

We didn’t play any of the games, but the selection was new and extensive. It seemed like the sound level of all the games was turned to maximum, making conversation in the gameroom difficult. I couldn’t see any acoustic treatments that addressed either sound absorption or reverberation reduction. The metal roof deck appeared exposed.

The one thing that struck me as strange in the gameroom was the four Big Bass Wheel games banked up immediately next to each other along a wall. That arrangement resulted in what is usually a very visual and noticeable game when placed in the open losing all its impact. My guess is that the four Big Bass arranged that way achieve less revenue then what two of them would earn placed separately in the open.

We decided to check out the food at the restaurant since it was early in the evening and it wasn’t crowded. Being wine drinkers, we decided to order wine. Despite the growing popularity of wine, there were only two mid-quality red wine selections whether by the glass or bottle, a Cabernet Sauvignon and a Merlot. When it came to whites, there were three mid-quality selections plus a Zinfandel blush selection. Beers were a different story; there were 26 selections. The limited wine selection and broad beer selection indicates to me that Dave & Buster’s is not trying to attract an upper socioeconomic nor a 40’s plus crowd.

We ordered one appetizer to share. We thought we were playing it safe ordering pretzel nuggets with three dipping sauces. The order came with the pretzel nuggets coated with excessive butter that was dripping out of the bottom of the container holding the nuggets. The nuggets looked like pretzel nuggets but tasted like dough nuggets. There was no pretzel taste to them. Just after starting our nugget tasting the manager came by to see how things were. We told him about the nuggets. He didn’t taste them but agreed they should not have been drenched in butter. So he took them away and ordered us new ones. The new ones didn’t have the excessive butter problem and maybe had a little hint of pretzel taste, but they would never pass for pretzels.

As a main course one of us had a salad, one a pasta dish and I had salmon. The salad was fine, the pasta so-so, my fish was good but the side of vegetables was minimal and not hot. For dessert we shared a pecan-topped cheesecake that was acceptable. Overall we rated out total meal experience a notch below going to a Ruby Tuesdays whose food we felt is far superior to what we had at D&B. Based on quality, we thought everything was overpriced.

That sure doesn’t speak well for Dave & Buster’s, to not even be on par with mid-level causal dining restaurant chains. They might be able to get away with that on International Drive in Orlando where you’re dealing with a tourist market rather than a resident customer that you need to get repeat business from. If this is the new model Dave & Buster’s plans to role out in residential markets, they have a long ways to go if they expect to become known as a good value dining destination, especially in light of the impact the recession has had on raising the bar on consumers’ dining out value expectations.

During their financial quarter ending July 31, 2011, Dave & Buster’s reported that their cost of goods for food and non-alcoholic beverages was 24.3%. That is lower than the non fast food restaurant industry standard of around 30%. For Dave & Buster’s, based on our visit, the result of their costing formula is that the quality of their food is not up to the price they charge.

Their menu offers a number of Eat & Play combos where you get a $10 game card with the meal. I did a quick calculation and found that the combo price was about $6 more than the stand-alone meal price. Based on D&B’s cost of goods sold for games, that means the $10 game card costs them about $1.60, so they are increasing their profit by $4.40 plus priming the pump to get customers to play their games.

Perhaps by packaging meals with entertainment, no different than what Chuck E. Cheese’s does, customers buying a combo deal don’t arrive at the same value conclusion we did for a stand alone meal’s price versus its quality; rather the Eat & Play combo is perceived as a discounted deal, a good value for deal-hunting customers.

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Social Stratification of Out-of-Home Entertainment

There is a long-term trend in the U.S. that started many years before the Great Recession of an increasing share of out-of-home entertainment venue spending shifting to higher socioeconomic households. Between 2000 and 2010, the top 20% of households by income ($92,000+) grew from 42% to 49% of all community-based inflation-adjusted entertainment spending and from 44% to 52% of all entertainment spending on trips.

The bottom line is that to succeed in the U.S. venue-based entertainment industry, you have to target and attract the upper socioeconomic households since the out-of-home entertainment spending pie is now smaller and that group owns the largest piece. These are consumers with lots of out-of-home entertainment and leisure choices and with discriminating tastes and expectations. They have high expectations for customer service, food, cleanliness, just about everything. The bar is higher than it has ever been and will likely continue to go up.

Also check out our 2010 in-depth article on The increasing social stratification of out-of-home entertainment and leisure.

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Video Games Taking Share from Out-of-Town Entertainment Spending

Our company has started analyzing detailed entertainment spending data for 2010. As I reported in the previous blog, household out-of-home entertainment spending saw a decrease in 2010. In the near future we will be analyzing whether the staycation trend is continuing or if we are starting to see a return to spending on entertainment on trips.

In this blog, I decided to take a look at video game hardware and software expenditures and the impact such spending might be having on out-of-home entertainment spending. The graph below shows the share of average total household spending on out-of-home entertainment (both community-based and on trips) combined with video game hardware and software by the three different entertainment categories.

Click to enlarge graph

Between 2000 and 2010, total inflation-adjusted average household spending of all three categories combined declined by 2.7%. But as the graph shows, what is even more significant is that entertainment spending has been shifting away from out-of-home entertainment to the video game category. Most of the shift is coming out of entertainment spending on trips. In the year 2000, spending on video game software and hardware only accounted for 11% of all such entertainment spending. In 2010 it had grown to 22% of all such spending. In fact, average household video game spending doubled during the decade. During the same ten years, entertainment spending on trips decreased from 39% to 28% of all such entertainment spending. The increase in video game spending is being offset by almost exactly the same amount of year-by-year decrease in entertainment spending on trips. The graph lines for the two spending categories are almost perfect mirror images of each other. As one goes up, the other goes down in sync.

The data shows that there is a definite long-term trend; the virtual world is winning and real world out-of-home entertainment venues, especially entertainment venues visited on trips, are losing.

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Household Spending for Out-of-Home Entertainment and Restaurants Seriously Declined in 2010

When the Great Recession was in full force in 2008, we saw sales for out-of-home entertainment and restaurants fall.  Economists, and more precisely the National Bureau of Economic Research, claims that as of June 2009 the recession ended, so common sense would say that consumer spending should not be continuing to decline. Well the new consumer expenditure data for 2010 paints a gloomy picture. Adjusted for inflation, average household expenditures for all items and for both out-of-home entertainment and restaurants spending saw a greater percentage decline between 2009 and 2010 than during any of the earlier years since the recession’s start.

Compared to 2009, average 2010 household expenditures declined:

All Expenditures                            -3.5%

Out-of-Home Entertainment    -10.8%

Food Away-from-Home               -7.9%

This is a serious decline and scary stuff if you are in either industry. Think about it. The average household spent approximately one-ninth less on out-of-home entertainment and about one-twelve less for food away-from-home (of which 96% is spent in restaurants and foodservice establishments) in 2010 compared to 2009. Furthermore, declines for both type expenditures occurred for all five quintiles of household income. The spending decline is the result of both spending less when consumers do visit a restaurant or entertainment venue and consumers just not going out as frequently as they used to. The economists may think the recession is over, but consumers sure aren’t behaving that way. It is apparent that consumes consider both out-of-home entertainment and restaurant expenditures as very discretionary. As a result those categories take a major hit when consumers cut back on spending.

Between 2007 (the recession officially began in December of that year) and 2010, we’ve seen the following cumulative declines in annual inflation-adjusted average household expenditures:

All Expenditures                            -7.8%

Out-of-Home Entertainment    -14.9%

Food Away-from-Home               -9.6%

I believe what is happening to shopping malls is also occurring with entertainment venues and restaurants. The ‘A’ malls are doing okay. The ‘B’ malls are suffering and you might as well write off any mall grade ‘C’ or below (most have closed or currently look like ghost malls). When consumers decrease their spending, they become even more discriminating and seek out the best quality, the best value for their money and expendable time. Those entertainment venues and restaurants that offer excellence on all dimensions from the consumers’ perspective; the ones that offer quality food and beverage, great service, a great overall experience and at a price consumers see as reasonable for the value they receive will continue to prosper. The bar has been raised and those entertainment venues and restaurants that don’t met this new higher standard will fall by the wayside. Just like the retail industry, there are more restaurants and entertainment venues than consumer spending can now support, so some will close.

In future blogs or articles in our Leisure eNewsletter, I will be digging into the data on out-of-home entertainment expenditures to examine what changes occurred in 2010 to community-based entertainment spending versus entertainment spending on trips. Could it be that the staycation trend is continuing and perhaps accelerating? (For more on the staycation trend, see our article that examined the staycation trend based on 2009 data.) I’ll also be examining whether the trend of entertainment experience migration from real world entertainment venues to the virtual digital world continued into 2010. (See our article for more on the virtual digital world migration trend.)

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Per person restaurant expenditure trend

My last blog examined the trend of declining household food away-from-home expenditures over the past twenty years. Since there have been some changes in the composition of households over that time period, I decided to also examine per person annual expenditures. The trend is the same as for households; per person 2009 spending is less than inflation-adjusted 1989 spending. Since 1989 per person spending has declined by 13%. Since an interim high in 2005, it has been on a steady decline totalling -10%. It is interesting that the decline started in 2005, several years before the Great Recession.

click graph to enlarge

We will have 2010 spending data later this month and once we analyze it, I will be reporting on changes to both out-of-home entertainment and food away-from-home spending on this blog as well as in our Leisure eNewsletter.

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Are restaurants reaching equilibrium of supply and demand?

The Great Recession had a sudden and severe impact on restaurant sales. Prior to the recession easy financing and hungry shopping center developers fueled an increase in the number of new restaurants resulting in a supply that exceeded demand. The recession just made the situation all the worse when consumers cut back on restaurant visits and spending. Many restaurants were forced to shift to a value-oriented menu to continue to capture business from the new frugal consumer. A large number of restaurant chains and individual restaurants have since declared bankruptcy or closed. Most of the closures were independent restaurants. The NPD Group reports that for year ending March 31, 2011 of the 9,450 restaurant closures, 92% were independent restaurants.

Reports show that sales are slowing returning. However, when you dig into the data and go back before the recession and adjust sales for inflation (*see footnote), it becomes clear that household expenditures for food away-from-home (restaurant and foodservice establishment sales constitute 96% of the category) have been on a decline since the early 1990s. Household food away-from-home expenditures grew in the late 1990s and into the early 2000s to peak in 2001. They have been on a decline ever since. The recession only accelerated the decline. Household restaurant sales were 10% lower in 2009 than in 2001. Households in the highest quintile of incomes ($94,000+) showed the smallest decline in restaurant expenditures since 2001, only -5.9%. The lowest quintile (<$19,000) showed the largest decline, -25%.

If we go back twenty years to 1989 we find that household 2009 restaurant expenditures have declined 15% over the twenty years. The total 20-year decline was fairly consistent across all income households with households in the middle quintile of incomes ($36,000-$57,000) showing the greatest decline of -20%.

The following graph tracks the 20 years of inflation-adjusted household food away-from-home expenditures for each household income quintile as an index. An index of 100 equals average 1989 household away-from-home expenditure. An index of 150 equals 150% of the 1989 average household expenditure. A 50 index would be 50% of the 1989 average. The graph clearly shows the decline in expenditures for all household income levels.

Of course, during those same twenty years, while individual household food away-from-home expenditures were declining, the population grew by 24%. So from a macro countrywide perspective, total food away-from-home expenditures grew 8% (less spending per households but more households spending). The problem is that when you drill down to micro-geographic level, the situation doesn’t work out the same as many markets experienced little or no growth while others had growth exceeding the national average. So in some growing markets total away-from-home food expenditures increased, in the others it declined.

The restaurant closures the recession precipitated appear to be bringing supply and demand more into balance. According to the NPD Group, in 2007 at the beginning of the recession, there were 521 people per restaurant in the US. In early 2011 that figure had increased 5% to 543 people per restaurant.

Hopefully the restaurant industry will try to keep its sanity in the future and avoid creating another oversupply that can’t take an economic shock.

* It is unfortunate that most revenue reporting in the restaurant industry is intellectually dishonest, as the numbers fail to adjust for both inflation and population growth. So often when the reports show growth, revenues are actually decreasing absolutely and/or per capita. For example, if inflation is running at 2% and the population is growing at 1% annually, then restaurant sales would have to increase 2% to just stay even, and if you factor in population growth, nationwide sales would have to grow 3% annually just to stay even on a per capita basis.   

 

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Chuck E. Cheese’s Rated as Worse Pizza Chain

Nation’s Restaurant News magazine and WD Partner’s undertook a comprehensive study of customer attitudes toward 139 different restaurant chains. Eight different dimensions of attribute were measured. One common theme emerged for all types of restaurants, the relative unimportance of value compared with other attributes. Consumers said attributes such as cleanliness and food quality were more important to them than value.

In the Limited-Service Pizza/Italian restaurant category that covered eleven restaurant brands, Chuck E. Cheese’s had the lowest rating of all the brands in five of the seven attributes measured and came in second lowest in Likely To Recommend or Likely to Return (Sbarro had the lowest score for each).

The chart below shows the scores. Scores are based on the percentage of respondents who choice 1 or 2 out of a five number scale with 1 being the highest rating.

It is amazing that with such poor ratings CEC Entertainment, the owner of the vast majority of Chuck E. Cheese’s and the franchisor of the rest, is so profitable with consistent EBITDA’s in the mid-twenty percentages and good cash flows. You would think with Chuck E. Cheese’s low rating on cleanliness that mom’s would keep their children away in droves.

The explanation for CEC’s success is probably attributable to the fact that it ranked higher than any other chain in its category for atmosphere. Atmosphere to the survey respondents most likely reflects the entertainment, the games. It appears that the presence of the entertainment, which generates approximately 50% of CEC sales, has an appeal to customers that overcomes CECs other shortcomings. That would make CEC’s formula, ‘Come for the fun and stay for the food, even though our food isn’t good quality, we don’t offer great value and we aren’t the cleanest restaurant in town.‘ Sounds a little counterintuitive, but their eatertainment formula does work.

Chuck E. Cheese’s is working on improving their food quality, as they have rolled out a new fresh dough pizza. If the pizza is improved, it should also increase their value perception.

 

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